If Pierre Thomas is one of your starters, sit him this week: he's injured. (AP photo)

And you’ve had time to stew.

Producer Alexander Quince, during both the drafts he and I participated in, had this maxim:

Think long, think wrong!

That particular aphorism can be applied to lineups as well. Tonight is the first game of the season, and it’s likely either you or your opponent has one Steeler or one Titan playing tonight. If you drafted Chris Johnson, you’re wondering if you should sit him against Pittsburgh’s vaunted defense, perhaps starting Brian Westbrook and Ray Rice instead. Or maybe you have Santonio Holmes as one of your wide receivers and you’re worried that Wes Welker, who’s playing Monday night and is also on your team, might sit with an injury. Do you start Holmes, or do you gamble on Welker?

It’s enough to give even a casual fantasy player fits.

So don’t worry about it.

Go with your stars in week one. If you have Johnson, Westbrook, and Rice, you start Johnson and Westbrook, with Rice in the flex (if you have one). You don’t sit Johnson just because he’s playing a good defense. And you know how Bill Belichick is with injuries; Wes Welker will play on Monday — that’s five days away. Start Welker and whoever your #2 is (Ochocinco or Cotchery or whomever you picked), and let Santonio Holmes sit on the end of your bench.

I’m active in several fantasy football communities, and I’ve dispensed the same advice for the past week: start your starters unless they’re clearly ruled out. Obviously you don’t start Pierre Thomas or Marshawn Lynch — Thomas is injured and Lynch is suspended — but if you drafted McNabb as your starting QB, you don’t sit him just because Carolina’s got a good defense or because your backup (say, Carson Palmer) has a good matchup.

There are situations in which you want to play matchups — if your QBs are David Garrard and Joe Flacco, or if you went WR-heavy early and only have Kevin Smith, Darren McFadden, and Cedric Benson as your RBs. But if you have a well-balanced team, you start your starters in week one.

For reference, here’s my starting lineups in week one:

11Alive League:
QB: Jay Cutler
RB: Steve Slaton, Brian Westbrook
WR: Wes Welker, Hines Ward
Flex: Ray Rice
TE: Visanthe Shiancoe
D: Patriots
K: Jeff Reed
Bench: K.Walter, D.Mason, F.Jackson, C.Pennington, B.Celek, L.Betts, C.Henry(CIN)

Chesley’s League:
QB: Jay Cutler
RB: LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook
WR: Wes Welker, Hines Ward, Kevin Walter
TE: Visanthe Shiancoe
D: Patriots
K: Kris Brown
Bench: P.Thomas, R.Rice, D.Mason, J.Flacco, D.Bess

See anyone on either bench that deserves to start over who’s already in there? My only question would be to possibly start Mason over Walter in Chesley’s league, but I have my reasons for picking Kevin Walter — specifically, he benefits from double-coverage against Andre Johnson, and if Johnson goes down, Walter will rarely face double-coverage.

There are compelling arguments for starting most of my bench players — Mason is a reception machine, Flacco has a great matchup, Rice (in Chesley’s league) also has an easy matchup, Fred Jackson is starting this week — but why start them over guys I picked sooner.

Everyone calm down. Start your starters. You’ll be happier in the long run.

I predict Ray Rice will be my key to victory, and that he'll be a late first-round lock in 2010. (AP photo)

Here’s how I drafted, and my analysis, with round numbers in parentheses:

QUARTERBACK: Jay Cutler (8) — I’m amazed he fell this far, and was very pleased to get him this late.

RUNNINGBACK: LaDainian Tomlinson (1) and Brian Westbrook (2) — Just call me Mr. 2007. I believe LT has enough left for one more great year, and Westbrook, as I said previously, is Westbrook.

WIDE RECEIVER: Wes Welker (3), Hines Ward (6), Kevin Walter (7) — Given that this is a WR-heavy league, I really should’ve drafted WRs sooner, but I’ve got four starting RBs (note my backups, below) and I’m sure I’ll be able to trade at least one of them.

TIGHT END: Visanthe Shiancoe (9) — Same issue as with the other league.

DEFENSE: New England Patriots (12) — A better place to draft them. Not as much of a run on defenses. This league really rewards takeaways, and the Patriots are awesome at that.

KICKER: Kris Brown (13) — Given how highly the Texans scored last year, I predict good numbers all around.

BACKUPS: Pierre Thomas (3) is better than Reggie Bush in non-PPR leagues, though I think I took him too soon. Ray Rice (5) is a steal in the 5th. Derrick Mason (10) will be great for my bye week. Joe Flacco (11) will be a serviceable backup, especially in week 5 when he plays Cincinnati. Greg Camarillo (14) was my flyer pick of the draft; it looks as though he and Davone Bess will split #2 duties, but Camarillo is the veteran in a group that includes Ted Ginn Jr and I’m more likely to pick a veteran when it comes to WR.

FINAL ANALYSIS: I give myself an A- in this draft. I needed to pick WRs sooner, and better ones. Lesson learned. This league will be tougher, but I still think I’m in the top half of teams. Maybe even the top third.