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draft self-analysis 2: Chesley’s league

Posted in Drafting by Josh R.
Aug 31 2009

In Chesley’s league, I drafted 12th (of 12). In this league: Producer Ben Mayer, technical gentlemen of awesomeness Tyrone B. and Wesley A., assignment editor Kendra Mackey, show producer Rich Hardwick, Meteorologist Chesley McNeil, engineer DB Miller, Shawn Hoder of the CIA, show producer Alexander Quince, former director Ronnie Smith, reporter Matt Pearl, and myself.

I predict Ray Rice will be my key to victory, and that he'll be a late first-round lock in 2010. (AP photo)

I predict Ray Rice will be my key to victory, and that he'll be a late first-round lock in 2010. (AP photo)

Here’s how I drafted, and my analysis, with round numbers in parentheses:

QUARTERBACK: Jay Cutler (8) — I’m amazed he fell this far, and was very pleased to get him this late.

RUNNINGBACK: LaDainian Tomlinson (1) and Brian Westbrook (2) — Just call me Mr. 2007. I believe LT has enough left for one more great year, and Westbrook, as I said previously, is Westbrook.

WIDE RECEIVER: Wes Welker (3), Hines Ward (6), Kevin Walter (7) — Given that this is a WR-heavy league, I really should’ve drafted WRs sooner, but I’ve got four starting RBs (note my backups, below) and I’m sure I’ll be able to trade at least one of them.

TIGHT END: Visanthe Shiancoe (9) — Same issue as with the other league.

DEFENSE: New England Patriots (12) — A better place to draft them. Not as much of a run on defenses. This league really rewards takeaways, and the Patriots are awesome at that.

KICKER: Kris Brown (13) — Given how highly the Texans scored last year, I predict good numbers all around.

BACKUPS: Pierre Thomas (3) is better than Reggie Bush in non-PPR leagues, though I think I took him too soon. Ray Rice (5) is a steal in the 5th. Derrick Mason (10) will be great for my bye week. Joe Flacco (11) will be a serviceable backup, especially in week 5 when he plays Cincinnati. Greg Camarillo (14) was my flyer pick of the draft; it looks as though he and Davone Bess will split #2 duties, but Camarillo is the veteran in a group that includes Ted Ginn Jr and I’m more likely to pick a veteran when it comes to WR.

FINAL ANALYSIS: I give myself an A- in this draft. I needed to pick WRs sooner, and better ones. Lesson learned. This league will be tougher, but I still think I’m in the top half of teams. Maybe even the top third.

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Tagged as: analysis, chesley, draft, grade

draft self-analysis 1: the 11Alive league

Posted in Drafting by Josh R.
Aug 31 2009

For reference, I’m going to call this league, the one where I have Westbrook and Slaton, the “11Alive” league. I’ll call the other one “Chesley’s league” — Matt Pearl may be the commish, but Chesley set it all up while he was on vacation. Matt, feel free to ask me to change it.

It amazes me that Brian Westbrook fell to me in the second round in two drafts. (AP photo)

It amazes me that Brian Westbrook fell to me in the second round in two drafts. (AP photo)

Yesterday was the draft for the 11Alive league. I ran it for two years, but this year it’s being run by show producer Rich Hardwick. My last official duty was making sure the draft went smoothly, and I think it did. In this league: our former webmaster, Paul Ossmann (team run by his son Grant), Ted Hall, Tiffany from sales, photojournalist Jon Samuels, Doug from engineering, Shawn Hoder from the CIA, 6pm producer Alexander Quince, web producer Michael King, myself, editor/photographer Drew Kwederas, and show producer Rich Hardwick.

I drafted 10th (of 12). My team — and my analysis, with round selections in parentheses:

QUARTERBACK: Jay Cutler (6) — I may have taken him a tad early, but I was certain he wouldn’t fall to me and he was in my second tier of QBs. Very pleased to see he’s developing a rapport with Greg Olsen.

RUNNINGBACK: Steve Slaton (1) and Brian Westbrook (2) — Slaton was the best available at the time, and I look for good things from him as being pretty much the sole RB in Houston, and Westbrook is Westbrook: great when he’s in there, but only good for 12 games in a season. I only hope that he has his injury troubles early.

WIDE RECEIVER: Wes Welker (4) and Hines Ward (5) — My personal draft philosophy is to take #2 receivers on teams with a superstar #1 so they reap the reward of the other guy being double-covered. Hines Ward is a notable exception, but he’s always dependable and I never balk at drafting him. Welker was the second receiver I targeted after Reggie Wayne, but there was no way Wayne would fall to me in the 3rd or 4th, which is where I targeted receivers.

RB/WR FLEX: Ray Rice (3), Kevin Walter (7), and Derrick Mason (8) — I plan to start Rice most weeks unless the time-share in Baltimore gets too complicated. Walter and Mason really are backup WRs more than anything else, but Walter benefits from the Andre Johnson factor and Mason is a great safety valve for Flacco given Todd Heap’s injury issues. I noticed he wasn’t even drafted in either of my leagues this year.

TIGHT END: Visanthe Shiancoe (9) — I know I took him too early, but there was a run on TEs and I was targeting Shiancoe because of the Favre factor.

DEFENSE: New England Patriots (11) — I think they’re a great second-tier defense, and I’m shocked they’re not ranked higher given their penchant for takeaways.

KICKER: Jeff Reed (16) — It seems like most of my team is off in Week 8, but Reed is a very dependable kicker, and that’s all I care about.

BACKUPS: Fred Jackson (10)
will probably be a good option while Marshawn Lynch is suspended, and he may be more valuable later if Lynch can’t get into a rhythm. Chad Pennington (12) plays the Jets in week 5 (Cutler’s bye week), and I look for him to do his usual serviceable job there. Brent Celek (13) is, in the words of Drew, “the sleeper pick of the draft”, and Drew was wicked pissed when I drafted Celek just before he did. Ladell Betts (14) looks to be the third-down back in Washington, and Portis has been known to have injury issues. Chris Henry (15) is challenging for the #2 receiver spot in Cincinnati, and with Ochocinco there, he has the propensity to get free for long catches.

FINAL ANALYSIS: I give myself a B+ in this draft; I would’ve wanted to draft one more starter/heavy-committee RB than I did, and I shot myself in the foot with bye weeks, but overall I think I have one of the top three teams in this league.

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Tagged as: analysis, draft, grade

last pick

Posted in Drafting by Josh R.
Aug 28 2009

I'm not drafting this guy in the first round, but I know SOMEONE will. (AP photo)

I'm not drafting this guy in the first round, but I know SOMEONE will. (AP photo)

The first time I ran the 11Alive fantasy league — one of them, that is, because there’ve always been two — I lucked into the first draft position and got LT, then swung around the serpentine and got Brady and (I believe) Reggie Wayne coming the other way. It was a good year — the year Brady broke all those records. Good deal for someone just hoping for 25-30 touchdowns.

This year, I’m in two leagues: one run by show producer Rich Hardwick, and one co-run by meteorologist Chesley McNeil and reporter Matt Pearl. The draft order was picked yesterday.

I got last.

For the first time in my entire fantasy football career, I’m picking last in the first round.

According to ESPN’s most recent rankings, the 12th player to be taken should be Drew Brees. Ahead of him: Andre Johnson, Frank Gore, Larry Fitzgerald, LT, Chris Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, S-Jax, Matt Forte, MJD, Turner, and AP. Now, I’m not under any circumstances taking a QB in the first round. I’m sure someone will, but it won’t be me.

The question is: who will fall to me at the 12th (and 13th) picks? The people in this league know their stuff, so I’m not planning on seeing Johnson or Gore taken in the first round. If I want a top-flight RB in the first round, my pickings will likely be pretty slim — I’m thinking Steve Slaton, maybe Gore, Marion Barber, and Brandon Jacobs. Of those guys, I know which one I’m targeting.

My saving grace might be that there’s some Eagles fans playing in this league, so Westbrook is likely to go earlier in the first round than he probably should.

Once I draft both 11Alive leagues — the other one drafts Sunday afternoon — I’ll talk a little more about my draft strategy, but for now, I have to figure out who my 12th and 13th picks are going to be… and who I’m going to target when the serpentine comes back around to me at the end of the third.

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Tagged as: chesley mcneil, draft, eagles, last pick, matt pearl, rich hardwick, strategy

welcome!

Posted in Meta by Josh R.
Aug 28 2009

Welcome to the 11Alive Fantasy Football Blog.

As at your office, so goes our own — that is, there’s tons of people working at 11Alive who are into fantasy football. From the committed dilettantes to the hardcore players… you name it, we’ve got it.

Look, there’s tons of expert analysis out there. We don’t pretend to be the be-all end-all. But we know some stuff, and we want to share it with you. Make your own choices as to whose advice you follow — Mine, Jon’s, Chesley’s, whomevers… or none of ours.

Oh, and we’ll take your questions, too. There’s a page where you can send them in. I can’t guarantee we’re right, but we’ll certainly give it our best shot.

And now… let’s get ready for some football!

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